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Economics goes potty over Harry Potter?
First in the queue was a 15-year-old chap who did not catch a wink for 11 hours, had to fork out a prohibitive $32.95 for a children novel, cried out in ecstasy when handed the book as if he had won a million dollars. The subsequent fans reacted almost the same way. This phenomenon was not unique to Singapore but across the world. I went potty not because I am a Potter fan but the whole phenomenon baffled me it defies the laws of economics as I have had understood it. Singaporeans are no strangers when it comes to queuing. In fact, we have outdone people of other nationality so much that queuing has been called our national pastime. Be it for Hello Kitty, the National Day Parade tickets, condominiums or freebies, people of the island republic have often demonstrated remarkable zeal and determination rarely seen in other countries. But these queues can be explained with rudimentary economics concept - supply and demand. With limited number of tickets for the yearly National Day Parade, the queue reflects the excess demand at the prevailing price. Given the tickets are free and will continue to remain that way, the price could not be adjusted to discourage or reflect demand. Therefore, lining up serves as a clearing mechanism on a first come first serve basis. Another mechanism, though less popular, is balloting. This holds true for people queuing up for Hello Kitty. Though supply for the stuffed cat was more elastic, the price was fixed. Initially, Hello Kitties were mostly bought by boyfriends and admirers for their potential mates; rumours abounded that the investment later reaped handsome returns when their potential mates agreed to settle down and carry their genes on the basis of receiving this cat. Subsequently, the demand rocketed, resulting in a vibrant re-seller market for Hello Kitty. Speculation that prices would continue to shoot up further fuelled the demand since huge profits can be made by merely buying, and then waiting and selling to wistful boyfriends. But the Harry Potter phenomenon seems to defy all laws of economics. First, supply is not an issue here. With more than 200 million copies in print and even more in printing, there is no indication of perceptible shortages. There were no limited collector's editions for early birds. The $32.95 price-tag should make it one of the most expensive children literatures available, unless the merits of the book far surpass the price demanded. Even then, queuing remains unnecessary when you can still get the book the next day at the same price. What about speculative motive? With millions of copies being printed and in printing, I doubted you can fetch a price higher than scrape paper of the same weight, at least for the next 50 years. So why the hurry and the queue? The revelation came to me in the remarks made by Potter fans in the queue. In a TV news snippet, one fan said he was ecstatic to be among the first to own the book but disappointed to see the queue was shorter than he had expected. Another said: "It's a once-in-a-life event and I wouldn't have missed it." Their replies implied that they derived some kind of satisfaction from not merely owning and reading the book first but also to be in the queue - to join and be part of the whole Harry Potter phenomenon. The queuing was no regarded a chore but an experience they enjoyed. This may seem bizarre at first. Let me draw another example. A recently married lady told me that she felt happiest during the months leading up to her wedding day. I was surprised as I thought matrimony bliss come after marriage. She then reminisced about how she enjoyed the preparation work, the anticipation and all the fuss over her during those months. So, as with most pleasures, it is not so much the experience itself as the anticipation that is enjoyable. We live in a highly predictive and repetitive world - we go to work/school, come home, eat, watch TV and sleep every day, almost without fail. And when we feel hollow, what better way to break this monotonous cycle than to join a midnight queue, get a glimpse of David Beckham, and chase after Pop Idols. At least they are much safer to taking drugs, engaging in unprotected sex, spraying bullets in schools and other mischiefs. No one put it better than W.H. Auden when he wrote, "What the mass media offer is not popular art, but entertainment which is intended to be consumed like food, forgotten, and replaced by a new dish." (Auden). We have explained the queue but what about the Harry Potter phenomenon which has been hailed as the biggest phenomenon in the history of publishing. With more than 200 million copies in print worldwide, the books have been translated into 55 languages and are available in 200 countries. The literary influence is global. Without offending any Potter fan, I do not deny J. K. Rowling's brilliant and magical touch. But there is more to the phenomenon than just the book's merits. Reading, in this case, is no longer a solo activity whereby the reader reads, showers praises, then puts back on the shelf. It has become an asset by which we can enhance and enrich our social circle. If I were to attend a party by a bunch of soccer fanatics, and when I mistake "Beckham" for a shortened name for beacon and ham, I will definitely be left out, might even be ostracised. This feeling will resonate more among teens where peer pressure is greater. Most of us need this sense of belonging which can be obtained through the knowledge, products or interests we share. In the case of the Harry Potter book, people especially teens are not just buying a book but also a sense of belonging. Adding to that, if the majority of people endorse a product, the penalty of someone not doing the same is greater. Back to the boy who felt disappointed when the queue was not as long as he had wanted, would he discriminate against another boy, who is no Potter fan? Maybe. I believe, non Potter fans nowadays will not be asked "Why don't you like Harry Potter?" but "How could you not like Harry Potter!" The incentives and the disincentives are obvious. The early birds stand much to gain. If I were among the first to read the latest Harry Potter, I can easily notch up one rung in popularity count. Besides having common subjects I can share with Potter fans (millions in the world) - those who have read and those not - I can also create a Web site, or start a discussion group on all things Potter on the Internet and easily securing millions of hits than if I were to write about Mickey Mouse. The media also plays a part in fuelling this phenomenon. A columnist wrote, "-- is already winning raves from critics afraid to offend their subscribers, parents afraid to alienate their kids and, just as likely, kids afraid to disappoint their parents." The laws of economics prevail after all, no more potty over Potter or bonkers over Beckham.
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